National Statistics Office

Nepal's economic growth forecasts for the fiscal year 2025/26 are showing significant divergence, with the World Bank predicting 2.3%, the Asian Development Bank 2.7%, and the National Statistics Office 3.85%. Meanwhile, the Chinese app TikTok is in a tax dispute with Nepalese authorities over unpaid Value Added Tax (VAT) for the current fiscal year, despite having paid VAT in previous years. Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) have collectively invested $1.09 billion in Nepal's private sector between 2014 and 2023, with a significant portion directed towards hydropower and commercial banks like NMB Bank.

Bagmati province is projected to contribute over a third (36.7%) to Nepal's national economy in the current Fiscal Year 2025/26, according to preliminary estimates from the National Statistics Office. This highlights significant economic disparities among the seven provinces, with Bagmati expected to contribute Rs. 2.42 trillion to the national economy, estimated to reach Rs. 6.6 trillion.

Madhesh Province's economic growth rate is projected to remain weak in the current fiscal year, with preliminary estimates indicating a contribution of 13.1 percent to the national GDP. This slowdown is attributed to the negative impact of insufficient rainfall on paddy, fishery, and forestry sectors, leading to a decline in agricultural output for two consecutive years, according to the National Statistics Office.

Bagmati Province is projected to contribute 36.7% to Nepal's economy in FY 2025/26, significantly outpacing other provinces, according to the National Statistics Office (NSO). The province is also expected to achieve the highest growth rate at 5.40%, exceeding the national estimate of 3.85%. In contrast, Madhesh Province is anticipated to have the lowest growth rate at 1.31%.

Nepal's private sector is urging the government to implement a transformative budget focused on structural economic reforms, moving beyond incremental changes to reshape the nation's economic model. Business leaders have submitted recommendations and pledged cooperation for reforms aimed at reviving growth, boosting investment, and creating employment. Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle stated the government is adopting a "mission mode" approach emphasizing legal reforms, accountability, and measurable outcomes.

The Second National Economic Census, initiated by the National Statistics Office, has reached approximately 87.08 percent completion. Data collection is ongoing nationwide, with enumerators having distributed over 800,000 paper forms and 10,000 census tokens. The census, which began on April 15, is scheduled to conclude on June 21.